by Mexico News Daily
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cast doubt on Mexico’s goal of returning to the world’s 10 largest economies by 2030, warning that insufficient investment and modest economic growth could delay that ambition until at least 2031.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected that Mexico’s strongest annual growth during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s term would reach only 2.2 percent, too little to secure a top-10 ranking. Sheinbaum announced the objective through Plan México, her administration’s economic strategy.
The IMF expects average annual growth of 1.7 percent during Sheinbaum’s presidency, compared with 0.9 percent under Andrés Manuel López Obrador and 1.9 percent under Enrique Peña Nieto.
Its updated forecasts place growth at 1.5 percent in 2026 and 1.8 percent in 2027, with approximately 2 percent projected for 2029, 2030 and 2031. Those figures trail the expected Latin American and Caribbean average of more than 2.5 percent.
Mexico ranked among the world’s 10 largest economies from 1999 to 2004 but fell to 15th place in 2025. The IMF expects it to climb to 13th this year, passing Australia and Spain, and reach 12th by 2030, overtaking Russia.
What Mexico must address
The IMF urged Mexico to attract more private investment by improving infrastructure, easing regulatory burdens, reducing uncertainty and strengthening trade integration. It also called for better security, stronger anticorruption efforts and measures to reduce informal employment.
Alejandra Marcos Iza, director of analysis and strategy at Mexican financial institution Kapital, identified weak investment, moderate consumer spending and negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement as obstacles. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and international trade has discouraged new productive projects, she said.
A July Bank of Mexico survey of 42 private-sector economic analysis groups also identified governance problems as major barriers to growth. Respondents pointed to insecurity, weak rule of law, domestic political uncertainty and corruption.
Together, these challenges suggest Mexico will need stronger investment and a more predictable business environment to approach its long-term economic ambitions. Without improvements, Mexico could remain outside the top 10 after 2030, despite its gradual rise in global rankings.
With reports from El Universal and Puente Libre.
