A clear primary field and a favorable U.S. Supreme Court ruling could help these California Republicans eke out wins in the state’s remaining swing districts

by Maya C. Miller

It’s a rough year to be a Republican running for Congress, especially in California, where voters greenlit new maps designed to oust five GOP incumbents in favor of Democrats.

Three were doomed after being drawn into solidly Democratic districts. But there’s one bright spot for Republicans: campaign cash.

In the state’s two remaining competitive districts, seats that Democrats gerrymandered in their favor and now consider must-wins to flip the House, bruising and costly primary battles have put Democratic candidates at a financial disadvantage as campaigns gear up for the sprint to Election Day.

In the Central Valley, Republican Rep. David Valadao has a warchest of more than $3.3 million in cash, according to the latest federal report filed Wednesday. His Democratic opponent, progressive professor and school board trustee Randy Villegas, only has a fraction of that — about $571,000 in cash on hand.

Unlike Valadao, Villegas had to win an intra-party battle against Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, the establishment-backed candidate and heavy favorite. His campaign spent more than $1.45 million in the two months leading up to the June 2 primary. Valadao’s team spent less than $280,000 during that same period.

Further south in the 48th District, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond is sitting on more than $1.2 million in cash, federal filings show. His Democratic opponent, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, is further behind with $825,000 after fending off fellow Democrat Amar Campa-Najjar in the primary.

And in the Sacramento suburbs, the $2.1 million in Republican-turned-independent Rep. Kevin Kiley’s account dwarfs the $359,000 that Democratic former state Sen. Richard Pan has available.

Magnifying that GOP financial edge is a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court last month, which eliminated decades-old limits on how much political parties could spend in direct coordination with the candidates they support.

Under federal law, broadcasters must offer candidates the lowest available rate. But political committees, such as parties or super PACs, have had to pay much more for the same advertising time. This primarily benefited Democrats, whose candidates are typically stronger fundraisers thanks to vast small-dollar donor networks.

The new ruling essentially gives political parties access to that lower TV ad rate as well — and the Republican National Committee is flush with cash this year.

It had more than $125 million on hand at the end of May, according to the most recent federal filing, compared to the Democratic National Committee, which records show is more than $3 million in debt. Similarly, the House GOP’s campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has more than $81 million at its disposal, more than twice as much as its Democratic counterpart.

Despite being saddled with an unpopular president and an unpopular war that has increased the cost of living, Republicans are bullish that the court’s decision will help enough of their candidates in swing districts to keep the party in control of Congress.

“While California Democrats are licking their wounds following messy D vs D primaries, we will continue working with our partners at the RNC to strengthen investments already in place across California,” California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin said in a written statement through a spokesperson.

Ruling will force campaign choices

Democrats aren’t ringing the alarm bells just yet.

“I don’t see this as being, like, the biggest unlock,” said Paul Mitchell, the Democratic vice president of a California political data firm and a redistricting expert, of the Supreme Court’s ruling. “That money would have found its way to the right candidates that the Republicans wanted to spend money on.”

Mitchell argued that the ruling will force Democrats to evaluate which money is best spent by which parts of the campaign — the candidate, the parties, super PACs or other outside groups. For instance, instead of the candidate reserving TV ads, the party could focus on buying ads and the candidate could work on building a strong team of on-the-ground volunteers.

Democratic candidates in the swing congressional districts still held a significant fundraising advantage last quarter before the June primary.

In the 22nd District, Villegas outraised the incumbent Republican Valadao nearly 2-to-1 in the last filing period that ended June 30, according to campaign reports submitted Wednesday. In the 48th District, von Wilpert lapped Desmond by more than 3-to-1, raking in $871,000 compared to his roughly $272,000.

It’s still unclear whether the national Republican Party committees will choose to spend their windfall in California, though. While the national Republican committees could theoretically stretch their dollars by spending more in districts across the country, they may not choose to prioritize California with its more expensive media markets. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report classifies only 18 of the U.S. House’s 435 seats as “toss-ups.” Another 10 races lean toward Democrats winning, while nine lean toward Republicans.

“They want to play where they can win seats,” said Rob Stutzman, a longtime California Republican consultant. “Money doesn’t solve everything, and they’re on defense in a lot of places.”