by Jose de la Isla
Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won the presidential election Nov. 4 over Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona with substantial Hispanic voter help from key states. Edison-Mitofsky exit polls estimate that Hispanics supported Obama nationwide by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent.
At least 10 million Latinos voted, estimates Janet Murguía, president of the National Council of La Raza NCLR was part of the coalition effort by Hispanic organizations to boost voter registrations. Actual Latino voter turnout is estimated at 9 percent of the national electorate.
The often-mentioned swing-states scenario—involving Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, states with large numbers of Hispanic voters—proved true. The policy analysis group NDN reported the day for lowing the election that Obama’s victory margins in those four states were attributable to the Latino vote.
Obama’s level of support from Hispanics comes as the second major voting-pattern shift in as many elections. In 2004, attention was drawn to the 40%-plus level of support President Bush received during his re-election bid when he faced Democrat John Kerry. The swing back to 2-to-1 in favor of Obama reflects a return to the mostly historical voting pattern.
In key battleground states (see table on p. 2) the results show Latinos made substantial, even unprecedented, contributions in electing the new president. Even in embattled Virginia, for instance, where Hispanics make up only 6 percent of the population (a full third under 16), they provided Obama 28 percent of his victory margin in that state.
In early September, pollster Sergio Bendixen revealed at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute public-policy conference that Hispanic public-opinion surveys already indicated Latinos strongly favoring Obama in these critically important swing states.
Only Florida was stale mated in a virtual tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates. Huge voter-registration and voter-turn out efforts followed, along with unprecedented levels of funding for campaign advertising.
On election night, Florida and Virginia were undecided when Ohio swung for Obama. As polls closed in New Mexico and Colorado networks held off calling the race until precincts closed in the West.
Elections analyst and former director of the South-west Voter Registration Education Project Andrew Hernandez had earlier predicted to Weekly Report he envisioned Latinos getting credit for the election only if John McCain were able to win Ohio and Florida, hold on to Virginia, and Obama picked up New Hampshire and lowa.
“Then it’s a Latino narrative,” he said, because the election would hinge on New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada to put him over the top. “That, of course, can’t happen until the sun rises over San Francisco Bay.”
The day following the election, pollsters and analysts were reporting that young voters and “minorities,” alluding to Latinos, had put Obama over the top.
And the sun was reported rising over Golden Gate Bridge. Hispanic Link.
