by Ali Noorani
In the vacuum left by the federal government’s failureto reach a comprehensive fix of the nation’s broken immigration system, states have taken it on themselves to fill the void through a patchwork ofstate-based laws that mirror Arizona’s approach. However, states considering harsh immigration proposals should heed Arizona’s cautionary tale.
According to a report compiled by the National Immigration Forum, at least seven states are likely to propose immigration enforcement laws similar to Arizona’s “Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,” commonly referred to as SB 1070, the nation’s broadest and most punitive immigration measure. Some will attempt to follow Arizona’s example despite overwhelming evidence that Arizonalike immigration legislation will further strain already fragile state economies.
Out of the seven states likely to consider Arizonalike legislation, Pennsylvania and South Carolina are highly at risk of approving such harsh immigration enforcement measures. In Pennsylvania efforts to pass anti-immigrant proposals failed in the summer of 2010 but efforts in 2011 could be supported by the now-conservative controlled legislature and Governor Tom Corbett who as Attorney General, filed a legal brief in support of SB1070. Several Arizonastyle bills have also been pre-filed in South Carolina. Like Pennsylvania, passage of a bill similar to South Carolina also has a conservative controlled legislature and governor supportive of the Arizona law.
SB1070 diverts scarce resources away from community policing by forcing police to spend time playing a federal role. In addition, taxpayers will bear the inevitable financial burden of lengthy court litigation.
As efforts to reform the nation’s immigration laws have stalled in Congress, the number of state-based immigration laws has increased dramatically. In 2008 alone, 1,305 bills were considered by state legislatures, 206 were enacted, and three were vetoed.
Arizona’s legislation is mired in a costly legal battle that appears headed for the United States SupremeCourt and could take years to resolve. Several key policy and public safety questions remain unanswered by proponents.
According to independent analysis, the lawwould exacerbate problems it purports to address, such as public safety, a state’s budget deficit, and confusion around the role of law enforcement agencies to enforce federal immigration laws. Analyses also show that SB1070 has already cost Arizona millions of dollars in tourist and convention revenue.
Preliminary assessments of the likely outcome of proposed copycat measures in state legislatures across the country indicate that at least
seven states, Georgia, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Tennessee, are likely to pass a measure similar to Arizona’s.
These states have some combination of the following: a re-elected, highly-motivated potential bill sponsor, an alreadyintroduced measure similar to Arizona’s or a legislatureapproved resolution supporting Arizona’s SB 1070, as well as a conservative governor and conservative majority in the legislature.
Politically, the law had an electoral ripple effecton races and campaigns in Arizona and the rest of the country. It had a powerful and negative impact on the Republican brand among the nation’s fastest-growing electorate: Latino and immigrant voters. Republican leaders in these states now have
tough choices to make as they weigh the responsibilities of governing.
Who will speak for their party on immigration reform and what path will they choose as their states contemplate Arizona-style policies in response to the broken immigration system?
How will they answer questions of cost and safety?
The exact number of states that will pass harsh immigration enforcement laws depends on a number of factors.
We can, however, be certain that the immigration battle in state legislatures in 2011 and 2012 will have a profound impact on independent voters’ perception of leadership in troubled economic times and the progress of changing the public face of the Republican Party among Latino voters.
Republicans will have a real electoral problems in 2012 if the party continues to be seen as one that lacks respect for Latino and immigrant families.
The immigration problem is a national one that requires a federal solution.
We can’t solve it on a state-by-state basis, and we certainly can’t solve it with proposals like SB1070 in Arizona or in any other state. We need the federal government to take bold and decisive action, and fix our immigration system now.
(Ali Noorani is executive director of the National Immigration Forum.)
