by Mexico News Daily
Mexico, the largest supplier of oil to Cuba, is weighing whether to halt or scale back shipments to the energy-starved Caribbean nation amid concern that continuing the policy could provoke retaliation from the Trump administration, according to a Reuters report citing senior Mexican government officials.
Cuba relies heavily on imported fuel, and Mexico’s role has become even more critical following the suspension of Venezuelan oil deliveries. Shipments from Venezuela reportedly stopped due to a U.S. blockade of oil tankers and the recent capture of President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month.
Reuters reported Friday that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is conducting an internal review of its Cuba oil policy, driven by anxiety within the cabinet that the shipments could antagonize Washington. The news agency cited three senior Mexican government sources who said all options remain under consideration, including a full halt, a reduction, or continuation of shipments.
Mexico’s oil deliveries have placed the country “in Washington’s crosshairs,” Reuters wrote, noting that President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Cuba is “ready to fall.” In a Jan. 11 social media post, Trump declared, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!”
Separately, Politico reported that the Trump administration is considering new strategies to force regime change in Cuba, including a possible total blockade on oil imports. The outlet cited three people familiar with the discussions, emphasizing that no final decision has been made.
If implemented, a U.S.-led oil blockade would effectively remove Mexico’s ability to decide independently whether to continue shipments. Politico said the proposal is part of a broader effort to pressure Cuba’s communist government.
Publicly, Sheinbaum has insisted Mexico will continue supporting Cuba. Speaking last Wednesday, she said Mexico “will always be there” for the island nation, providing both oil and humanitarian assistance. Her administration, like that of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has long opposed the U.S. embargo against Cuba.
Privately, however, Reuters reported that concern is mounting within the Mexican government, particularly as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) comes up for review later this year. Mexico is also wary of Trump’s repeated threats to take unilateral military action against drug cartels operating on Mexican territory.
One Mexican government source told Reuters there is “a growing fear that the United States could take unilateral action on our territory.”
According to Reuters, some Mexican officials believe Washington’s effort to cut off Cuba’s oil supplies could trigger a severe humanitarian crisis, potentially driving mass migration toward Mexico. For that reason, some within the government are advocating for continued fuel shipments, even if at reduced levels.
Sheinbaum’s office told Reuters that Mexico “has always been in solidarity with the people of Cuba” and described oil shipments and payments for Cuban medical services as “sovereign decisions.”
Reuters also reported that Trump raised the issue directly in a Jan. 12 phone call with Sheinbaum. Citing two sources, the agency said Trump questioned Mexico’s oil shipments to Cuba and the presence of Cuban doctors in the country. Sheinbaum reportedly responded that the oil deliveries constitute humanitarian aid and that the medical agreement complies with Mexican law. Trump did not explicitly demand that Mexico halt shipments, the sources said.
The call came shortly after Trump declared the U.S. would begin “hitting land” in the fight against cartels, fueling speculation about possible U.S. military strikes in Mexico. After the call, Sheinbaum said U.S. military action could be ruled out.
Still, Reuters reported that Mexican officials are increasingly concerned about the growing presence of U.S. Navy surveillance drones over the Gulf of Mexico. Local media reported that at least three Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones have flown repeatedly over the Bay of Campeche, closely following routes used by tankers carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba.
The same aircraft were reportedly observed near Venezuela in December, days before U.S. military action there.
The issue has also drawn criticism from U.S. lawmakers and commentators. In a Washington Post opinion column, journalist León Krauze cited Republican Rep. Carlos A. Giménez, who accused Mexico of propping up a dictatorship under the guise of humanitarianism.
Krauze argued that oil shipments do little to benefit ordinary Cubans and cited reporting by Mexicanos Contra la Corrupción estimating that Pemex shipped roughly $3 billion worth of oil to Cuba last year, while officially reporting only about $400 million to U.S. authorities.
“Mexico cannot openly sustain the Cuban dictatorship while simultaneously expecting goodwill from Washington,” Krauze wrote.
— With reporting from Reuters and Politico
