by El Reportero
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, doubling its estimate from 0.4 to 0.8 percent. For 2026, it expects growth of 1.3 percent, up from a previously estimated 1.1 percent.
The upgrade comes shortly after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upward its forecast for Mexico’s GDP for this year to 1.0 percent, a sharp turnaround from its April forecast of -0.3 percent. The IMF projects growth of 1.5 percent in 2026.
The “OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025,” released Tuesday, highlighted stronger-than-expected exports despite global trade volatility. However, it warned that “the full effects of tariff increases have not yet been felt,” with early signs of inflation in consumption, labor markets, and global prices.
Regarding inflation, the OECD raised its forecast for Mexico in 2025 to 4.2 percent, up from 3.4 percent previously. For 2026, it anticipates moderation to 3.6 percent, noting persistent but easing pressures. The organization urged the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to remain “vigilant” in the face of evolving risks, although it noted that monetary easing via rate cuts could sustain demand.
Along with resilient exports, lower interest rates could bolster growth in 2026, complementing trade dynamism. The OECD also called for maintaining fiscal discipline to ensure debt sustainability and maintain room for maneuver in future crises.
Risks persist, it warned, such as tariff increases, fiscal liabilities, and volatile crypto assets that could destabilize financial markets. Even so, the organization emphasized that Mexico’s external sector remains a stabilizing force in the face of trade tensions.
— With reports from El Economista, Mexico Business, and El País.
In other unrelated news:
US designates another Latin American gang as a terrorist organization
Listed as “one of the largest in the region”
The United States government designated Barrio 18 as a foreign terrorist organization on Tuesday, linking it to attacks against authorities and civilians in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Barrio 18 as “one of the largest gangs” in the region. Guatemalan media note that its name comes from a street in Los Angeles, California, where it originated.
“This measure demonstrates once again the Trump Administration’s unwavering commitment to dismantling cartels and gangs and ensuring the safety of the American people,” Rubio said in a statement.
In May, Washington had already designated the Haitian groups Viv Ansanm and Grand Grif as terrorist organizations. Earlier, in February, shortly after Trump took office, the US designated the Sinaloa Cartel, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), the United Cartels, the Northeast Cartel, the Gulf Cartel, and La Nueva Familia Michoacana as terrorist organizations, along with El Salvador’s Mara Salvatrucha and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua.
