by Marc Heller
The 2010 census is two years away, but analysts already are predicting sizable Hispanic gains in Congress when mapmakers redraw congressional district lines to keep pace with population trends.
Heavily Hispanic districts are likely to be created in Texas and Florida – two states that stand to gain additional seats in the House of Representatives – and in California, even though that state is not likely to gain seats in Congress, analysts say.
Population growth in Texas and the Southwest should create opportunities and depending on whether Democrats or Republicans in those states’ legislatures control the redistricting, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan publication in Washington, D.C.
“There are just so many moving parts,” Gonzales said. “You’re increasingly going to see the Southwest be the battleground.”
The House has 25 Hispanic members. California leads with 10’ Texas has six and Florida four.
Analysts’ projections are based on Census Bureau estimates. Between 2000 and 2006 the Hispanic population grew from 35.3 million to 43 million.
If trends hold~ Texas would be the big winner, gaining between two and four House seats due not only to its fast growth’ but to stagnant or declining population in other states. Because the House must remain at 435 seats, the allocation of seats to various states changes with every 1 O-year population count.
Arizona and Florida could each gain two seats. The fastest growing state by percentages, Nevada’ could gain one more seat, analysts say.
In Texas, Dallas and Houston are likely to pick up Hispanic districts, said Andy Hernandez, a political analyst in Austin and author of The Almanac of Latino Politics 2000. If Texas picks up two seats, he said, “There’s no question in my mind that at least one will be a Latino district, if not both.
“You get to four, and it’s almost impossible,’ not to draw additional Hispanic districts, Hernandez said, because of Hispanic population growth and the federal Voting Rights Act’s requirement that districts be drawn to keep ethnic or racial groups together when there is sufficient concentrated population.
Mapmakers may also have to make up for not creating Hispanic districts in Dallas and Houston after the 2000 census, said David Wasserman, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C.
Key is who controls the state legislatures. They draw the congressional map in most states. Those elections are already in play. “Those who win in 2008 draw the lines in 2010,~ Hernandez said.
The process begins in summer 2010 when the census count begins. Latino organizations are already making plans to boost participation; Latinos are typically undercounted, and the U.S. Supreme Court has said districts must be drawn with an actual headcount, not the statistical adjustments the government uses for federal programs, for instance.
In January 2011, Congress will approve an apportionment plan – the number of seats per state. In March of that year through the summer, more detailed population counts will give mapmakers in the states the information they need to start drawing districts. The 2012 election will be the first with the new congressional districts.
In Florida, growing communities of Puerto Rican, Venezuelan and Colombian immigrants could lead to creation of a Hispanic district in the Miami area, said Guarione Diaz, president and chief executive officer of the Cuban-American National Council. In Orlando, more Colombian, Mexican and Peruvian immigrants could mean an additional Hispanic district, he said.
California could gain Hispanic districts in San Diego or the San Fernando Valley, said Steven Ochoa, director of voting rights and policy research at the William C. Velasquez Institute’s California office. Although some analysts have said California stands to lose one House seat because of slowing population growth, Ochoa said a worst-case scenario is to break even.
Analysts said they do not expect many Hispanic congressional gains in other states, including Nevada, despite population growth. In some states such as Georgia, the Hispanic population is too spread out to build a congressional district, they said.
And while Arizona will gain seats in Congress, its independent redistricting commission is not necessarily favorable to Hispanics, who have finally made strides in the more partisan state legislative redistricting process elsewhere, Ochoa said. Hispanic Link.
