by Henry Cisneros,
Executive Chairman, CityView
I offer here a bold assertion – that the concept of the “Law of Large Numbers,” as it applies to the Latino population of the United States must and will result in extraordinary changes in our society as a whole.
Simply put, the Law of Large Numbers means that quantitative changes inevitably bring forth qualitative changes. In this context, the Census Bureau’s mid-range estimate that the nation’s Latino population will constitute 25 percent of the U.S. population in 2050 is a startling statistic, with startling implications.
My own conclusion is that in order for the United States as a country to continue to advance in this century, it will be necessary for the Latino community within it to advance far beyond its present condition.
What do I mean by America’s advance? I use the term to mean the continuance of the nation’s historic path of growth, progress and greatness. These are generalizations, but are broadly understood to be the large-scale descriptions of nations, identifying eras and defining periods of excellence. Over the last century, the United States has led the world in growth, has embodied the ethic of progress and has measured up to a millennial standard of greatness that compares favorably with the legendary nation states of world history.
Since the 1900s, the forces of economic dominance, scientific prowess, cultural influence, educational opportunity, broad political consensus, demographic vigor, military strength and leadership projection, have converged to produce achievements in every field of human endeavor and demonstrated a path toward similar achievements in other nations.
A relevant question is how long such greatness can be sustained.
Did the turn of the “American Century” in 2000 bring the end of America’s leadership? Will the United States share the experience of Old Europe and Great Britain in the 1800s? Do global forces push China and India forward so rapidly as to eclipse the American Era?
The answers to those questions bear greatly on the quality of life for all Americans, who must recognize such answers will in large part be determined by whether or not the most rapidly growing population group in the nation, the American Latino community, is encouraged to contribute to the economic energy, the technological creativity and social cohesion of the country – or continue on a path of under-education, under-productivity and alienation.
Consideration of these issues drives me to the following conclusions: First, the Hispanic population is becoming so large that the aforementioned Law of Large Numbers comes into effect. Latinos will move the national averages in almost every measurable category of American life – economic, social indicators and educational attainment.
Second, the youthfulness and rapid growth of Latinos in and of itself can be major assets to the United States.
The Census Bureau reports that between 2000 and 2007 the white non-Hispanic population declined in 16 states and the white non-Hispanic population under age 15 declined in 42 states. By contrast, many of the states and cities that grew did so principally because of the influx and internal growth of Latino population.
Whatever the challenges the U.S. faces, and there are many, the stagnation of population decline, the contracting effects of shrinking markets and the constraints of unavailable workers, all factors evidenced in other major first-world countries, need not be our national pattern.
Latinos represent youthful energy, the hunger of ambition, willingness to work, and family and community striving for a better life.
Third, the traits just mentioned can be converted into a much more powerful and contributory force, but only when there is full Latino acceptance of a major role in building a national future. In a world such as ours, when other nations, especially the Pacific-rim powerhouses, are surging to the forefront, it is hard to imagine an American future of robust competitiveness if a population growing to one-quarter of its people remains in its present state of underperformance.
Latino activism must shift from asking America’s help for Latinos out of fairness or humanitarian instincts to an agenda of reinforcing our capacity to help build the nation in which we have a stake. That requires an unabashed commitment to the quality of public education, to higher education, to entrepreneurship, political advocacy and leadership development.
Latinos are now ready to accept responsibility for helping build the American future.
They have already proven this in military service. Significantly, they work hard in jobs that others will not do. Their strong family ethic involves seeking a better life for their children and encouraging ambition and achievement. They understand sacrificing today for a chance at a better future.
Many have consciously chosen to come here because they know it is a better life for their families than in any other country. They have made courageous decisions and risked dangers, which most Americans never have to think about, much less act upon, in order to be here. American Latinos, with understanding from American society, can and will do their part to sustain America’s growth, progress and greatness.
Finally, American society can choose this outcome for the nation by accepting a straightforward proposition: by remaining open to the prospect of a truly inclusive society, with faith in education and talent unleashed, the nation’s best days are ahead. From World War II on, the nation’s progressive instincts spurred the expansion of the middle class by means such as the G.I. Bill, a commitment to home ownership and the idea of the minimum wage.
Those same instincts supported a drive for a more just society, with the Civil Rights movement, the women’s movement and the environmental movement.
Now, in the wake of a hotly contested and divisive presidential campaign, Latinos must ask American society to reinvigorate its progressive instincts, to tirelessly keep open the path to the middle class, to invest in public schools, to improve access to higher education, to invest in the infrastructure of commerce and trade and to sustain the American belief in a future even greater than its past. Hispanic Link.
(Henry Cisneros of San Antonio, former Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, is executive chairman of CityView, funding homebuilders to develop the American Dream. Email: gpaniagua@cityview.com).
