by Luis Carlos López
Momentum for candidates in 37 competitive congressional races and three gubernatorial contests this coming fall will hinge heavily on Latino voter turnout, a report released Feb. 8 by America’s Voice reveals.
On average over the years, Latino voters have supported Democratic candidates in presidential race years by at least two-to-one margins. The Latino turnout for the November 2008 presidential election shot to 10 million — up nearly 2.5 million over four years earlier, with a similar or stronger preference for Democratic candidates in congressional races.
Exit surveys by the Bendixon polling firm found that Latinos cast their presidential ballots for Barack Obama over the GOP’s John McCain by a 75 -25 percent margin.
The strong presence or absence of Hispanics in the coming November mid-term elections can keep Democrats in power on Capital Hill or yield a shift to Republicans, says AV executive director Frank Sharry.
Eight Senate and 29 House seats spread across 12 states, plus gubernatorial contests in California, Texas and Colorado, are particularly at play, he says.
The expected candidates for California are Democrat Jerry Brown, the current state attorney general who served two terms as governor, (’75 -’83) and former EBay CEO Meg Whitman. In Colorado, Denver’s Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper will face off against either Scott McInnis or Dan Maes both of whom served in Congress.
In Texas, former Houston Mayor Bill White will faceoff against US Senator Kay Bailey-Hutchison and Governor Rick Perry. The America’s Voice study notes that Hispanics now comprise at least 25 percent of the population in 79 of the nation’s 435 congressional districts.
Of those, 54 are represented by Democrats and 25 by Republicans.
and four are Republicans. They are concentrated in three states.The success of either party is largely based on how well it addresses the issue of immigration, Sharry states.Currently, of the 27 Hispanic voting members in Congress, 23 are Democrats,
“All these things have to play out,” he explains. “There’s going to be a major mobilization in favor of immigration reform. The final chapter has not been written as to whether immigration reform is going to happen in 2010.”
Sharry and the panel that participated in releasing the report do not speculate on how many Latinos will turn out this fall.
However, they point out that Latino participation significantly increases even in nonpresidential election years.
Eliseo Medina, executive vice president of Service Employees International Union, says, “Latinos want to see comprehensive immigration reform and they’ll fight to get it… If any party thinks that not acting is going to work to their advantage by depressing turnouts, they are mistaken.
“And any party that believes they have a lock on this community because they don’t have anywhere to go is also mistaken,” he said. “This constituency is highly motivated and will participate.”
