by the El Reportero’s news services
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Preparations for general elections continued this week in Guatemala, as did election-related violence, with a tragic and worrying outcome. San Jose Pinula, a municipality southeast of the capital, has two vacant places among its candidates for mayor, after both were shot shot to death in actions that local authorities said were not politically motivated.
Whether or not that is true, the reality is palpable: predictions of heightened election-related criminal activity seem to be coming true. Even before campaigning officially kicked off, violence was already beginning to claim its victims, accompanied by attacks and constant threats. It was announced this week that 7.895 million Guatemalans may vote in the September 11 elections, and that women outnumber men by 75,000 on the voter rolls, which were being checked for eligibility.
The few pre-election surveys that have been held showed candidates from the opposition Patriot Party in the lead, especially retired general Otto Perez Molina, the party’s presidential candidate.
G a n g v i o l e n c e worsens in Monterrey
On 15 June 33 people were gunned down by gangsters in Monterrey, northern Mexico. The increase in the volume of killings by gangsters is being matched by a change in their targets. The state government of Nuevo León views the assassination of two of the bodyguards of the governor (on 15 June) as a clear challenge by the gangs, demonstrating that they could strike at anyone, anywhere. On 16 June the gangsters followed up their 33 killings by throwing at least four grenades at two federal offices in Escobedo, which is part of greater Monterrey. Both buildings were guarded by the army, yet apparently the gangsters got away easily.
Humala’s triumph is his greatest challenge
Ollanta Humala is Peru’s first left-wing, democratically elected president in 26 years. With full coffers and macroeconomic stability, Humala inherits half a country that wants change, and the other half that voted for keeping the status quo. Marrying these two elements into a consensual national project of change will test his mettle as a politician, a military man, and the leader of an often divided left-wing coalition. But first, Humala has over a month to capture the hearts and minds of the region and quell investor fears abroad.
H o n d u r a s – b a c k t o t h e f u t u re
On 1 June the Organization of American States (OAS) lifted its suspension of Honduras, imposed after the June 2009 coup d’état against the former president Manuel Zelaya (2006-2009). President Porfirio Lobo of Honduras, who secured a face-saving deal on the eve of the second anniversary of the coup to end the country’s diplomatic pariah status, was triumphant. Though the nine-point ‘Accord for the National Reconciliation and Consolidation of the Democratic System of the Republic of Honduras (‘The Cartagena Accord’) reads like a list of provisions to ensure the political future of Zelaya, who returned to Honduras on 28 May after a 16 month exile in the Dominican Republic, President Lobo himself may seek to reap the main political benefit ahead of the next scheduled general elections in November 2013.
Why Ecuador matters
President Rafael Correa of Ecuador is one the region’s most intriguing politicians. He is also one of the most ambitious and ruthless. The most effective critics of his administration are almost all his former close allies. Ministers who fail to deliver are dumped unceremoniously, reinforcing the image of Correa as a man with a mission. Significantly, important members of Correa’s administration are now starting to argue that their vision, especially on economic and environmental issues, has implications beyond Ecuador.
