Claudia Sheinbaum versus Mexico’s cartels: A perspective

by Travis Bembenek

The issue that most captures our readers’ attention is the power and violence of the cartels in Mexico. Many say Mexico will never reach its full potential until it brings them under control. I wholeheartedly agree. Corruption, threats, extortion, and violence not only damage Mexico’s economic prospects but deeply harm its people. Around 20,000 Mexicans die annually due to cartel violence, and over 80,000 in the U.S. from drug overdoses — a devastating toll on both nations.

Some Americans argue that Claudia Sheinbaum should step aside and let the U.S. military handle the cartels. But this view overlooks how complicated such interventions are. Look at the outcomes in Colombia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Foreign military intervention in a country’s internal matters rarely produces lasting success.

There’s also the faulty assumption that the U.S. can easily fix the supply side of the drug problem in Mexico while failing to curb demand at home. Focusing on Mexico’s side of the border ignores how the U.S. itself contributes to the issue through domestic consumption and lax control of supply chains.

Another common claim is that Claudia is afraid of the cartels and incapable of tackling them seriously.

So where are we now, about eight months into Sheinbaum’s presidency and nearly five months into Trump’s return to the White House? Are we making progress?

Let’s examine six key areas:

1. Increased troop presence at the border?
   Yes. The U.S. has over 10,000 troops and National Guard members at the border, with 1,000 more recently approved. Mexico has deployed 10,000 National Guard troops to border areas under Sheinbaum’s orders. These numbers represent a notable increase in military focus.
2. Improved surveillance cooperation?
   Despite initial controversy, Sheinbaum acknowledged that the Mexican military is working with the U.S. on surveillance. Covert CIA drone flights have begun over Mexico to locate fentanyl labs, and U.S. spy planes have flown missions near Baja. While no strikes have been authorized, these efforts show growing bilateral coordination.
3. Record drug seizures?
   Yes. Seizures of fentanyl and cocaine have hit historic levels. U.S. authorities in Arizona confiscated over 4 million fentanyl pills — quadrupling their previous record. Texas saw the seizure of over 1,500 kilograms of methamphetamine. Mexico’s Navy recently intercepted 1.28 tonnes of cocaine, and in Sinaloa, over 1,000 kilograms of fentanyl were seized, with an estimated street value of $400 million. These are major operational hits to traffickers.
4. Major cartel leader arrests?
   Recent arrests have struck at cartel leadership structures. Among them:

• MS-13’s senior figure Francisco Román (arrested in Mexico)
• Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada (arrested in the U.S.)
• Ovidio Guzmán (son of ‘El Chapo’) preparing to plead guilty
• Sinaloa Cartel members José Ángel Canobbio and Kevin Alonso Gil Acosta
• Carlos Treviño of the Northeast Cartel

Mexico also extradited 29 cartel figures to the U.S., including Rafael Caro Quintero. Most recently, 17 of El Chapo’s relatives surrendered at the U.S.-Mexico border — possibly linked to a plea deal. These arrests signal deeper coordination and greater pressure on cartel networks.

5. Has violence declined overall?
   The Sheinbaum government reports an 11% nationwide drop in homicides year-to-date. Security Minister Omar García Harfuch noted over 20,000 arrests for high-impact crimes and the seizure of 10,000 firearms. However, high-profile killings — such as the murder of two aides to Mexico City mayor Clara Brugada — keep concerns high. Incidents in Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Baja California Sur further illustrate the persistent threat.
6. What are U.S. officials saying?
   Trump has offered both praise and critique. On March 6, he posted, “Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard… stopping Fentanyl.” But in an interview with Fox News, he remarked, “Mexico is… afraid of the cartels… they run large sections of Mexico.” Still, he said he is “dealing very nicely” with Sheinbaum, calling her “a very fine woman.”

Homeland Security head Kristy Noem visited Sheinbaum in Mexico City, calling Mexico’s National Guard deployment and cooperation on deportation flights “a positive step,” though she added there’s still “much work to be done.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, “They have been very responsive on our security concerns… productive cooperation.” He plans to visit Mexico soon with other cabinet members to deepen bilateral efforts.

My take:
Although it’s still early in both presidencies, we are witnessing a higher level of coordination and commitment from the U.S. and Mexican governments. This momentum is unique and promising. Surveillance, enforcement, arrests, and diplomacy are all progressing.

The cartel problem won’t be resolved overnight — nor solely through force. But we’re seeing signs of a real effort to disrupt their operations more aggressively than in years past. The challenge ahead is to sustain and expand this progress.

What do you think?

Stay tune as we continue to follow this critical issue, one that deeply affects not just Mexico and the U.S., but the future of their bilateral relationship.

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.