by José de la Isla and Jackie Guzman
Pollster Sergio Bendixen’s latest numbers, released Sept. 9 to coincide with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute conference in Washington, D.C., show the immigration issue is mostly settled among voters in the key battleground states of Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
The report discloses overwhelming support for comprehensive reform. Two-thirds or more of those asked in each of the states expressed approval for comprehensive reform. Support ranged from 66 percent to 69 percent. Only a quarter or less (23 percent to 25 percent) opposed a reform package, with a minor number from 8 percent to 11 percent expressing no answer or not knowing.
These are key states for the Nov. 4 election. All have high proportions of Latino voters who are expected to determine the outcome of the states’ votes and possibly the electoral-college majority.
Immigration has run as a red-hot issue. Bendixen characterized some of the minority anti-reform attitudes as “paranoia” and “irrational” in a presentation of his data.
The results suggest immigration in the critical four states is a reasonably settled matter in the public’s mind. The pro-reform sentiment is generally consistent with similar national polls, although there has been some fluctuation.
Bendixen, an expert in Hispanic public opinion polling, conducted 2,000 interviews, 500 in each of the battleground states, Aug. 6-14, with an over sample of at least 150 Hispanic voters. The margin of error is calculated at 4 percent.
The poll, conducted in both English and Spanish, showed substantially sustaining support among Hispanic voters for comprehensive reform—74 percent to 78 percent in favor.
In the presidential preference portion of the poll, Barack Obama and the Democratic Party showed a substantial advantage over John McCain and the Republican Party.
The poll, however, was conducted prior to the Republican convention and the nomination of Sarah Palin for vice president by the GOP. Recent surveys have registered some movement among “social values”-oriented voters since that nomination. The impact with Palin on the ticket has yet to register in the polling with Latinos.
Based on election outcome forecasting, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada— due to Latino demographic increases and heavy voter-registration efforts—are expected to determine the victory margin in presidential balloting Nov. 4.
Bendixen shows that in three of the four states polled—Florida being the exception—Obama enjoys a wide base of support from Hispanics.
In Florida, however, Hispanic and non-Hispanic likely voters are evenly divided in choosing between Obama and McCain. The proportions are nearly the same, between 42 and 43 percent for each candidate. Hispanic Link.
