Republicans voting early, Democrats’ dislike for Kamala Harris, and polling and gambling numbers are all signs that the former president will win the election
by Stephen Kokx
Mon Oct 28, 2024 – There is one week left in the presidential race and by all indications Donald Trump is headed for a landslide victory.
Many people I talk to tell me that they are fearful that it will be stolen from him. Here’s why I don’t think that’s likely at this point.
First, there are more registered Republicans in battleground states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and elsewhere than there were four years ago. This is a built-in statistical advantage for Trump.
Second, early voting and mail-in voting show that more Republicans are casting their ballots before Election Day than Democrats this year, which has not been the case in previous presidential races.
Analyst Mark Halperin has predicted that if those trends continue, Trump will be declared the winner relatively early after polls close next Tuesday.
Third, key Democratic voting blocs aren’t enthusiastic about Harris, especially black and Hispanic men, who Trump has made historic gains with.
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That fact was recognized by Barack Obama a week ago when he told the media that “the brothas” do not have the same “energy” for Harris as they did when he himself ran for president.
Obama’s comment did not go unnoticed. During an MSNBC town hall at a barbershop in Philadelphia, black males told reporter Alex Wagner they were “offended” by Obama lecturing them how to vote.
Left-wing MSNBC anchor Andrea Mitchell has also admitted that Harris has a “big problem with men,” as have other websites.
Fourth, if you look at where Trump is campaigning this week, you can only conclude that his internal polling indicates he has shored up enough support in key battleground states that he can afford to go elsewhere to expand the map.
To be sure, he will still be visiting Wisconsin, North Carolina, and other Midwestern states over the next seven days, but he’s also headed to New Mexico, where, according to one poll he is within the margin of error.
Trump’s decision is notable because New Mexico hasn’t voted for a Republican president since George Bush in 2004. Mark Halperin has said, “if Trump wins New Mexico, he’s going to win in a landslide.”
Trump is also headed to Virginia, another historically Democrat state. Virginia elected Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2022. He is fighting to prevent illegal immigrants from voting and has instituted a number of other reforms that will likely have the effect of ensuring the count is accurate.
Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, appeared with Youngkin in the state last week. It’s clear the campaign believes he has a chance there.
Fifth, almost all polling data in recent days, even those from left-leaning organizations, shows a decisive break in Trump’s favor.
Harris’ decision to skip the Al Smith Dinner and her awful appearances on Fox, MSNBC, and her CNN town hall with Anderson Cooper are likely to blame.
The “vibe shift,” as Tucker Carlson has called it, has been so dramatic that even liberal outlets like CNN are admitting that Trump very may well capture the popular vote.
Michigan and New Hampshire are also states he has improved in in recent days.
At least in 2020 there was a plausible explanation for Joe Biden’s supposed victory as many polls showed he was ahead going into Election Day. This time around, that argument is not on the table.
Sixth, Democrats have no end game. They are trying to link Trump to “fascism.” This is an awful closing message, especially for a candidate who promised to “unite” Americans. This shows how desperate they are.
Hillary Clinton, for example, went on MSNBC and laughably claimed Trump’s epic Madison Square Garden rally Sunday night was a Neo-Nazi rally. Why she didn’t use the term “deplorables” is beyond me.
During its own coverage of the event, MSNBC ludicrously compared it a pro-Hitler gathering there in 1939 while failing to note that Bill Clinton himself accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination at the same arena in 1992.
Even ABC’s Jonathan Karl couldn’t deny that the rally was a pivotal moment in the campaign.
“Trump has created a movement, there is no doubt. I cannot think of another Republican figure of my lifetime who could’ve come into a Democrat city like New York and put together anything like that,” he said.
Conservative Charlie Kirk has theorized that the constant Hitler references are intentional, and that Democrats are laying the groundwork for yet another assassination attempt.
Only a campaign that realizes it is on its death bed does such desperate things.
Seventh, Democrats are admitting that Trump is doing exceptionally well.
Left-wing New York City Mayor Eric Adams told the press this weekend that Trump is not a fascist.
Progressive commentator Cenk Uygar commented that Trump “looked presidential and personable” during his Joe Rogan interview. He called Harris a robot who acts like a “talking point machine.”
Former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo, who relentlessly pushed the COVID shot and is now injured from receiving it, hosted a town hall with JD Vance on News Nation. Cuomo could not deny that Vance and Trump appeal to many ordinary voters.
If Adams, Uygar, and Cuomo are admitting this, then regular Americans, even those who have supported Democrats in the past, are thinking it too.
Eighth, the betting markets favor Trump.
Alright, so this is a pretty unscientific way to gauge an election, but money talks, does it not?
If the oddsmakers are hedging their bets and predicting a Trump win, then chances are they know what they are doing. If they didn’t, they’d be out of business. I don’t think it is realistic to think they are up to some sinister game by tinkering with the numbers right now given all the other trends mentioned above.
Ninth, there is no obvious explanation for a Harris victory if a steal were to occur, as there is no voting bloc she can point to right now that could win the election for her.
Over the past two months, Trump has enlisted a small army of politicians, influencers, and media personalities to cast as wide a net for him as possible.
While Tucker Carlson is out riling up young male voters, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is courting moderate Democrats and health-conscious medical freedom activists.
What’s more, while Tulsi Gabbard is on the stump speaking with women, Elon Musk is making it easier for tech executives and business owners to support Trump.
What segment of the voting population is left for Harris to convince in this last week of the campaign? The sponge has been rung dry and the constant heckling of her at her rallies suggests folks have grown tired of her constant lies and evasiveness.
Tenth, there is no “October Surprise” that could derail Trump’s campaign at this point, especially with voting already underway.
Trump has been in the public spotlight for well over 40 years. He is a known entity, and the American people are preferring him — yet again — to the Democratic option, despite his personal flaws and scandals.
It is simply not possible for Harris to get the polls to go back to even and then rally not just the Democratic base but crucial independent voters next Tuesday.
As Carlson said at a rally in Georgia last week, if the Deep State does cheat and Harris is declared the winner, the people won’t put up with it this time. It will be too obvious that it was fraudulent as all the traditional indicators show she is headed for an historic defeat. I could be wrong, and I have been before, but I’m more inclined today to place a bet on Trump on one of those websites than Harris.
